Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: implications for ecological forecasting

نویسندگان

  • L. D. Estes
  • B. A. Bradley
  • H. Beukes
  • D. G. Hole
  • M. Lau
  • M. G. Oppenheimer
  • R. Schulze
  • M. A. Tadross
  • W. R. Turner
چکیده

STEP Program, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA, Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA, Institute for Soil, Climate, and Water, Agricultural Research Council, Stellenbosch 2599, South Africa, Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Ecosystem Science and Economics, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA, School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg 3209, South Africa, Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa ABSTRACT

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis

Cointegration has different theoretical implications for forecasting. Several empirical studies have compared the out of sample forecasting performance of cointegrted VECMs against unrestricted VARs in levels and in differences. The results of these studies have been generally mixed and inconclusive. This paper provides a comprehensive review over the subject, and also examines the effects...

متن کامل

Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: a comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches.

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitab...

متن کامل

Study on Approaches of Land Suitability Evaluation for Crop Production Using GIS

In this paper, an approach to assessing ecological suitability of crop growth was developed using GIS, through a case study of maize planting in Jilin Province, in the northeast China, in order to improve the accuracy and objectivity of the evaluation, promote the rationality of crop distribution, and increase the efficiency of the agro-resource utility. Climate and soil conditions in the regio...

متن کامل

Mechanistic-Empirical Analysis of Asphalt Dynamic Modulus for Rehabilitation Projects in Iran

In the Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG), dynamic modulus of asphalt mixes is used as one of the input parameters in pavement analysis and design. For in-service pavements, MEPDG method uses a combination of some field and laboratory tests for structural evaluation of asphalt layers in rehabilitation projects. In this study, ten new and rehabilitated in-service asphalt pavemen...

متن کامل

Comparing the performance of GARCH (p,q) models with different methods of estimation for forecasting crude oil market volatility

The use of GARCH models to characterize crude oil price volatility is widely observed in the empirical literature. In this paper the efficiency of six univariate GARCH models and two methods of estimation the parameters for forecasting oil price volatility are examined and the best method for forecasting crude oil price volatility of Brent market is determined. All the examined models in this p...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2013